5/19 – 5/23 Red Rock Update
Building Wealth in the Secular Bull Market to 2036
Stocks peak about every 36 years, most recently in 1929, 1965, and 2000. This 36-year cycle can be traced all the way back to the earliest eras in recorded human history, back to Pythagoras and Plato and the Axial Age around 600BC. After each peak comes a period of decline (punctuated by bear market rallies) that typically lasts 16 years or so. Then, with the excesses of the prior bull period wrung out and investors most depressed, the next 20-year run to the next market top can begin. We're in that Golden Age now – take advantage of it!
Howdy, Bull-Riders:
Who are the bears with sideline cash to take the stock market to all-time highs? Well, hedge Funds have added $25 billion of short equity futures exposure over the last three Commitment Of Traders reports, the largest increase in the last ten years.
h/t @WinfieldSmart
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost 1.3% since last Thursday as worries about the bond market overcame easing geopolitical factors. The Index is down 0.7% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.0% and is down 2.0% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 2.2% as we enter the medical and brokerage firms conference season. It is still deep in the hole year-to-date, down 12.0%. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 2.3% and is down 9.2% in 2025.
The fractal dimension hit the fully consolidated level, so the energy is there to start the next trend. It should be up, but we know from experience that the Index could consolidate further before a trend starts.
Economy
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model June quarter real GDP forecast ticked down a tenth to +2.4% after the weak housing starts report.
Below the Paywall This Week
* * tailored for AI inference and professional workstations
* * humanoid robots are the only universal type of robot that will work
* * the operating system for modern manufacturing
* * a $1+ billion available market
* * won a contract of unrevealed size from
* * successfully launched their third mission
* * We haven't seen this much short interest in biotech stocks in decades.
* * FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said evaluating the potential of
* * will present more than 20 abstracts at ASCO and EHA
* * China can now refine more oil than the US
* * uranium prices go up as more countries turn favorable on nuclear power plants
* * China just reported its largest two-month copper imports in history
Coming Events for Free Subscribers
All times below are EDT.
Monday, May 26
Markets Closed - Memorial Day
Tuesday, May 27
Short Interest - After the close
Thursday, May 29
March quarter GDP - 8:30am – Second estimate
Golden Age Portfolio Update
After last week's torrid 8.6% gain, this was a give-back week for the portfolio as it slipped 2.6%. We're now up 7.8% in 2025 and 93.3% since inception, with much more to come. Let's dig in...
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How to recreate ~70% of the functionality of a Bloomberg terminal for dirt cheap:
1. @getBamSEC for quick document search, conference call transcripts, and keyword alerts
2. @theflynews for real-time stock news
3. @theTIKR for financial analysis, earnings calls, and a screener
4. @wisesheets to pull data and stock prices into Excel
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RIP R&B/soul singer John Edwards
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Your monitoring the new media Editor,
Paid subscriber or not, if you would click the ♥ symbol below, it would really help me get the word out.